Federal · Sentencing research
Federal sentencing data studies, in one place.
Free federal sentencing analysis derived from public U.S. Sentencing Commission records — district-level disparities, the trial vs. plea penalty, mandatory-minimum impact, and below-guideline departure rates. Each study is reproducible from the USSC public data file and cites its methodology.
Federal sentencing studies
- Federal sentencing disparity by district
Median federal prison sentences range more than 20× across U.S. districts for the same offense. District-by-district aggregate analysis of USSC individual-offender records, FY2020–FY2025.
- The federal trial penalty
The median federal prison sentence after a jury trial vs. a guilty plea — the gap, how it varies by offense type, and whether it holds within every circuit. USSC records, FY2020–FY2025.
- Federal mandatory minimums
Defendants subject to an unrelieved mandatory minimum receive a median sentence 10× longer than those without one. Who is relieved via safety valve or substantial assistance, and by how much. USSC records, FY2020–FY2025.
- Federal below-guideline sentencing by district
Nationally, most below-guideline sentences are government-sponsored (5K1.1, fast-track) rather than judicial discretion. The split rewrites district rankings. USSC records, FY2020–FY2025.
Put the data to work
Turn district benchmarks into a sentencing memo argument.
BenchRecon's Sentencing Snapshot pulls your client's federal district's actual below-guideline rates, the government vs. judicial split, and peer-case comparables into a filing-ready brief with citations to the USSC data file.